He Could Have Been Even Better

Last night Jon Lester pitched a one-hitter against the Blue Jays, putting a stamp on a huge win to end Boston's five-game skid entering the night.

The amazing thing is that it could have been even better. Don't believe us? Just check out this scouting report from Inside Edge.

If that's the first time you've taken advantage of the Inside Edge reports which are streaming into boston.com the day after every game, don't make it the last. They really are an invaluable resource in judging just how effective different parts of the team were the day before. Sometimes, as was the case last night, they can even illuminate how a player may have underperformed in areas where it looked like he excelled. Just look at some of Lester's key numbers:

% of 1-1 counts that become 1-2 counts: 25
2 of first 3 pitches for strikes: 44 %
strike % of off-speed pitches: 47
% of off-speed pitches chased: 10
swing and miss percentage of strikes: 9

That's right folks. Despite tossing a one-hitter against a division rival, Jon Lester still scored an F in four different significant categories (2 of first 3 pitches for strikes, 1-1 counts that become 1-2 counts, strike % of off-speed pitches and % of off-speed pitches chased). Think about that: He allowed only five batters above the minimum, yet failed overwhelmingly on four notable fronts.

Luckily for Lester, he was immaculate in a number of other categories, most notably - naturally - percentage of runners who score.  His 1-2-3 innings were also impressive, both his well-hit averages (of at-bats, strikes and off-speed strikes) were a perfect .000. That's remarkable, and a pretty strong testament to how nasty his stuff can be when it's on. It may not be Beckett-level unhittable yet, but it can be pretty close. And right now, it's making up for the fact that he's still battling to take control of at-bats early in the count.

But, regardless of lingering pessimism, there is this: while his % of 0-1 counts becoming 0-2 counts and his % of 1-1 counts becoming 1-2 counts could both use improving, the vast improvement in his 1 of first 2 pitches for strike % is a big step in the right direction.

Sometimes, that's all a young pitcher needs to take a strong step in the right direction.

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